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This week in crypto was notably quieter than last as markets continue to digest tariff and macro updates. Liquidity conditions in the order books improved across exchanges, and without major headline catalysts, activity levels returned to a more measured, tactical rhythm.
On the market-making side, overall volumes declined modestly since mid-last week, reflecting the broader cooldown in volatility. Liquidity remained stable, and while an AWS network outage on Wednesday disrupted several centralized exchanges (Binance, KuCoin, and MEXC), our operations experienced no material impact. Token launch activity remains muted as post-tariff turmoil appetite has yet to recover meaningfully. However, demand for stablecoins remains robust, and we continue to see opportunities in liquidity provision for tokenized RWAs (real-world assets).
On the volatility front, it was an uneventful week. BTC and ETH implied continued trending lower across all expiries, with front-end BTC vols now down to the mid-40s. Realized is also compressing as we head into the long Easter weekend. Without a clear catalyst on the horizon, traders appear reluctant to hold long vol positions even at these depressed levels, wary of decay. In skew dynamics, risk reversals have normalized and we are seeing a return of put selling and call buying behavior — including some notable upside positioning further out the curve in BTC.
On the spot desk, we saw a brief but sharp uptick in activity late last week, triggered by Trump’s announcement of a 90-day retaliatory tariff pause. Risk appetite quickly returned, with clients buying into higher-beta names. However, the move proved short-lived, as conflicting weekend headlines once again injected macro uncertainty and slowed flows. Markets remain heavily influenced by the evolving tariff narrative, with many participants struggling to balance two competing themes: the fear of a global slowdown triggered by broad U.S. tariffs, and the belief that a favorable Art of the Deal outcome could still materialize. Macro-sensitive assets like Gold have surged into parabolic territory, helping to provide BTC with a floor despite weakening equity sentiment. Within alts we continue to see most of our OTC activity concentrated in SYRUP, AERO, HYPE, JUP, and RAY. A broader expansion of interest will likely require a meaningful easing of macro uncertainty.
Within credit markets, we’ve seen a rise in RFQs for stables against majors, likely signaling market participants gearing up for leverage on an upward market move. Since the beginning of the month, the CME front-month BTC basis has climbed from ~5% to ~7.5%, as perp funding rates have ticked higher across majors. Interest in hedging against upcoming and future token unlocks remains strong.
In summary, crypto markets have entered a tactical phase — flows are more selective, volatility is grinding lower, and positioning is cautious but opportunistic. The path forward will continue to be shaped by macro headlines, but the resilience in core assets like BTC suggests that participants remain ready to re-risk when conditions allow.
